No-one. If by this time next week, Silent T is enthroned as da Labour Boss, then I'll eat humble pie. My take:
Firstly, to summarise:
One of the main Heralders of Shearer's doom- is Tapu Misa: From the Herald:
Labour should look hard at Leader's competence.
"As the Labour Party heads into its annual conference this weekend, it
has some big questions to ponder. But first it has to ask itself how
long it can afford to persist with David Shearer as leader."
Tapu Misa bags David Shearer for not being enough like Helen Clark.
"It may be that Shearer will quell the growing disenchantment with a
standout performance this weekend. But I doubt it. He is not the leader
Labour needs right now."
The poor guy hasn't even delivered his speech to the party faithful and Misa is dropping the trapdoor on him.
Meanwhile, Russell Norman earns Misa's praise as politician of the year:
"Key is right that Green Party leader Russel Norman leaves Shearer for
dead. Labour needs a leader who understands what's happened to this
country over the past three decades.
I suspect Misa's political views are to the left of the Green party and this is what is flavouring her writing.
Brian Edwards says Tapu Misa is such a nice person that her views should hold credence:
Brian Edwards wrote the book on Labour's Helen Clark; after working with Helen, he is swaying 'agin' Shearer like the leaning Tower of Pisa:
"As an advisor to Helen Clark during the 2008 election I learnt to my
cost the danger of underestimating Key as a debater. My view and the
view of Helen’s other advisors was that Key would be no match for the
Prime Minister. He was a new boy and she was a seasoned practitioner.
She was ’Minister for Everything’ and had an encyclopaedic knowledge of
every portfolio. She would make mincemeat of this upstart. Key, it
turned out, had been hiding his light under a bushel. He was aggressive,
interruptive and in his element. Helen lost the first debate and we had
Why is this relevant?
Because David Shearer could not hold a candle
to Helen Clark as a debater. That is why I say Key will crucify him in
any face to face debate. It’s already happening in Parliament."
I've been chewing all this over but it was CK's great post that got me thinking.
" The usual folk but now even the lowly Tapu Misa is sick to bloody death of you.
" Anonymous authors at The Standard are now deciding your future. You
have to politely listen to everyone, not lose your cool and all the time
not scream the obvious - "I can still win the fucking election".
True. Shearer is getting it from all sides. The recent posts have lost the "if it happens angle to "when it will happen", with regards to Shearers dethronement. It looks all but inevitable to the casual observer, with a flavor of, "haven't we been here before:
Another element: Aunty Helen is back in the country as Kate points out:
"Helen Clark is in the country rallying up support for herself in Labour
electorates and is speaking in Clare Curran's electorate tomorrow.
Shearer faces a dilemma with her ghost the same every ACT Leader had
with Sir Roger Douglas. If Clark goes to the pivotal conference Shearer
is toasted as the media will be asking her about Leadership, if she
does not go then questions will be asked by media as to if she was asked
to keep away as to not overshadow an already invisible man. Douglas
never held back about his opinion of the current Leader. If Clark even
hesitates in her response it will be the lead story from the conference.
Every journalist will want that quote or moment."
My take: No doubt, supporters of Clark will play the visit up as Clark taking an opportunity to holiday in New Zealand and do some innocent public speaking on matters facing the world today like, ahem global governence and ahem, " global warming".
Leaving aside the fact that Clark is a public servant at the highest international level and shouldn't be pushing a political message:
Her visit to New Zealand is not an innocent appearance. The timing is quite deliberate.
Me? Personally I think Clark's got Shearer's back.
Someone else is gonna be in line for the shit sandwich that will be served up at the post conference dinner.
There is gunna be a reshuffling.
Following the Shearer/Clark leadership shuffle, New Zealand will get fed the line about Shearer needing a changed support team. Like when the interest rates rise and we get told, "your interest rates are changing".
My predictions on the collateral damage. First to walk the plank: Nanaia Mahuta.
Long term, Mahuta's political prospects are good. Good on her for exploring a political career in her childbearing years. Titanium ta-tas on that one.
However she has been less visible on education than Mallard ever was. The unfair thing is that this will right itself about two weeks post birth of her second child. Unfortunately the damage has already been done and she's been a lightweight while pregnant, which won't be forgiven easily by the powers that be.
Parker and Mallard will be for the chop. I pick Ardern to become associate finance while Mallard gets parked in SD. (Wildcard prediction).
Like the original Cowgirl from Hamilton, Shearer/Clark will be lassoing a leadership team together that will pull tight through to the next election, while shucking off the deadweight.
And fair enough. Everyone in a team must do their bit for the Leader to shine.
Helen's pretty quick and active on social media, the latest and greatest political tool for socialists and conservatives alike.